Learning for life: preparing kindergarten, school and TAFE infrastructure for the future

Victoria will need around 900 new kindergartens, up to 60 new government schools and 20% more teaching space for TAFE over the next decade as the state grows. Private and not-for-profit providers will meet some of this demand in the kindergarten sector. The Victorian Government can maximise the contribution of these other infrastructure providers by targeting its infrastructure to areas where others are unlikely to invest.

This research finds that Melbourne’s new growth suburbs will need 95% of new government schools and 40% of new kindergartens for the many more children and young people that will soon live there.

The government can accommodate more students in schools by adding more modern relocatable buildings and expanding existing schools. By building larger new schools, our modelling shows that the government can save $1.5 billion to 2036.

By 2030, TAFE campuses in Melbourne’s west, north and south-east growth areas, and some large regional centres, will need more space to train more students, especially in sectors with skills shortages such as construction, energy and health. The Victorian Government has an opportunity to expand existing campuses and locate new TAFE campuses in areas where demand is high.

By planning for the next decade or so now, the government can improve access to the education infrastructure Victorians need and save billions of dollars in delivering it.

Detailed, published plans provide certainty and help give the non-government sector the information it needs to confidently plan its own education infrastructure.

Key findings

• By 2036, Victoria will need 900 new kindergartens from private, not-for-profit, local and state government providers. Over 100 of these will be needed in regional Victoria.
• By 2036, we project Melbourne’s growth areas will need over 40% of the new kindergartens. Melbourne’s middle suburbs will need about 25% of them.
• The government can save $1.5 billion to 2036 by building larger new schools compared to the historical approach.
• Regional schools will be able to accommodate future growth by expanding existing schools to 2056.
• Victoria’s TAFEs will need about 20% more teaching space by 2036. This is on top of the new TAFE campuses the government has already committed to.
• Combined, TAFEs in regional centres will need around 50,000 square metres of extra floorspace to meet future demand for training from construction, energy and healthcare sectors.
• TAFEs in Melbourne’s north, west and south-east growth areas will need over 125,000 square metres of extra teaching floorspace to deliver training in construction and healthcare combined.

Recommendations

Our recommendations give the government guidance on the future demand for education infrastructure, and how it can make decisions to meet that demand.

• Facilitate markets for private and not-for-profit investment in kindergarten infrastructure. Share regularly updated information about the demand for and supply of kindergarten places.
• Immediately publish priorities for government investment over the next 5 years to deliver kindergarten in communities that will have the greatest need in 2036.
• Identify schools to expand and confirm areas that will need new schools. By 2030, fund expansions of existing schools and begin delivery of 35 to 60 new schools. Minimise costs by expanding the built capacity of existing schools and building larger schools.
• By 2030, expand TAFE campuses in Melbourne’s west, north and south-east growth areas, and some large regional centres, to train more students to fill skills gap, especially in construction, energy and health.