Infrastructure Victoria’s new research forecasts Melbourne travel in 2030

Friday 15 December 2017

Infrastructure Victoria today released new research providing insights into how Melburnians are predicted to use roads and public transport in 2030.

The work is part of Infrastructure Victoria’s Managing Transport Demand research program which is looking at ways to get the most out of Melbourne’s transport network.

Chief Executive Officer Michel Masson said the research delivered some interesting findings on how people are predicted to move around Melbourne in the future.

“Overall our forecast shows travelling around Melbourne in 2030 will be different, with 3.5 million more daily trips across the transport network,” Mr Masson said.

“The research also shows an expected increase in public transport use, with train, tram and bus trips forecast to grow by 75 per cent. 

“However, Melbourne is likely to remain a car-dominated city with driving still forecast to account for more than 70 per cent of all trips in 2030,” Mr Masson said. 

While the research shows that Melbourne’s roads will get busier, the impacts are likely to be different for different areas.

“We found that in outer Melbourne people are predicted to travel shorter distances as more jobs and services become available outside the CBD,” Mr Masson.

The findings were generated by a new transport model which maps how people use the transport network today and compares how it might be used in 2030 based on current travel behaviour and planned investments. 

Infrastructure Victoria also surveyed 1000 Melbourne peak hour motorists to explore people’s travel behaviour and attitudes.

“From our survey, we found that most people who drive in peak prefer a predictable journey time that takes longer, than an unpredictable journey time that is usually quicker,” Mr Masson said.

“We also found that around 1 in 4 drivers could change the time they travel and around 1 in 3 could change the way they travel. This could potentially take significant pressure off the roads, now and in the future.”

The modelling and community survey results will be used to inform the next phase of Infrastructure Victoria’s work on getting the most out of the transport network.

Mr Masson said it was vital to get an understanding of Melbourne’s travel patterns to better plan for a growing city.

“We know the future will bring some changes we haven’t yet considered but the new research provides a glimpse of what our transport network could look like 15 years from now,” Mr Masson said.

“Understanding the changing travel patterns on Melbourne’s transport network will help us identify and analyse options for making it easier for everyone to get around the city.”

To find out more about Infrastructure Victoria’s Managing Transport Demand research program, visit our Managing Transport Demand page.